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Lotto nonsense?

Lotto nonsense.

I think it was at a church fair. I was about 12 years old. The game was darts. The Board had red, green and white stripes. You could double your money if you landed on the correct label. I do not remember the bets. I remember winning and winning big money – for a child then. I began and ended with coins with notes. It was intoxicating. A small crowd gathered around and cheered for me. People love a winner.

Would you like to know the secret of my success? The trick is to choose the best strategy game and from the many available. Consider the national lotteries. Do they have the people to pass on poverty to poverty, or they go on the permit? It is not enough to point out that they create millionaires and thus for charitable purposes. In order to know what’s going on, you have to see the big picture and this one has to do the numbers.

Bad Games

Consider the so-called one-armed bandit slot machines or with its wheels spinning. Whether this is a good game or not, turns on what is known as the expected value. It is a very important concept in gaming. Think of it as a long-term average (Endnote 1). A game in which your total income equal to your total loss has an expected value of zero and is called fair play. Bandits are designed to give an average expected value of slightly less than 0. In the long run, the players will lose as a group. Casinos have actually won some want – but only temporarily. See win or win other words, you will come back to lose in the long run.

Long may really long. I wrote a freeware computer simulator to accelerate things. It is called the Freudian slot machine (see the accompanying illustration) and is on my website (www.mikelanderson.com). Instead of pressing many times, you get a button the computer to thousands of bets per minute to do. You can watch your money pile oscillate smaller and larger and smaller and smaller and then disappear completely. It takes a few minutes to 1000 simulated lose dollars. To lose this amount of real dollars in a casino, five or more hours of non-stop playing (Endnote 2) would. The one-armed bandit, a bad game. It is an extremely effective way of wasting time and money – for the player.

For the casino, the slot machine is a highly effective way to get money. A Las Vegas casino owner open it this way: When we put 50 machines in, I think 50 more mousetraps. You need to have a mousetrap to catch a mouse (endnote 3). Another Las Vegas said the owner, If you want to make money in a casino, a private (endnote 4). Billionaire and owner of several casinos, Donald Trump, who knows a thing or two about making money, said: Frankly, the idea of ​​risking hard-earned money on the dice or the spin of the wheel seems to throw a little ridiculous to me personally (endnote 5).

Why not design casinos slot machines soon as my simulator? Human psychology. We remember the occasional victory far more numerous than losses (Endnote 6). They spread the pain over time and we feel it less acute. The problem with the slot machines, that the losses with a human face. In contrast to a heavily-armed bandits, one armed diversity increases the risk of time and casinos go to a lot of trouble to avoid the possibility of beschö ; Nigen. Hooray casinos track player and losses before the predicted point back to the players is not reached, a lucky ambassador is sent to control the players on a pleasant change (Endnote 7) . My simulator in contrast, is a fast whammy of reality. You only need to play a few times to be set out slot machines for living.

Perhaps there is a better game out there?

If the national lottery better or worse? Imagine a lottery, which sold only four tickets at a buck each. The person with the winning ticket gets two bucks (the payout). In this case, there is a 0.25 probability of winning $ 2. On average, a person can expect (0.25 x 2) = 50c receive for every dollar spent. The expected value is -50. This imaginary lottery is a waste of time and money.

In real lottery, you get the same bad expected value ((endnote 8). Real lotteries are also a waste of time and money. In fact, as bad as one-armed bandit, they have a much better condition than expected value lotteries. People go for lotteries, because all the attention (especially from the seller) is concentrated on the payout, while nothing is said about the expected value. In fact, advertisers will encourage you, two tickets to buy to double your chances of winning recognize. How many, that the poor will remain exactly the same expected value? lotteries on large and small hype on mathematical explanation are.

Professor of Mathematics, Ian Stewart, says that the lottery is a tribute to public innumeracy (endnote 9). One person plays Lotto every week can only expect to win the jackpot about once every quarter of a million years. The expected value is so low, because the chance of winning is so low. For the South African National Lottery, the probability of winning the jackpot is about 1 in 14 million (endnote 10). According to the National Safety Council, an American is getting struck by lightning in a given year killed more frequently (about 1 chance in 6,000,000) (endnote 11). If so, I hear someone ask why we hear so many stories of lottery winners and so few victims of lightning? Human psychology again. The former is of much more interest to people than the latter (endnote 12).

You do not have a quarter of a million years waiting to see the big picture. Download my freeware lottery lottery simulator called nonsense? In just a minute, you can play the effect on the pocket in the lottery for ten years. It allows you to compare your money is on a lottery ticket or held in an interest-bearing savings account. I’ve written another freeware lottery simulator called Lotto loot? you can feel the effect of a lottery to a community. In this simulation you can play many manipulated variables such as the propensity of the people, the lottery, the expected value, the number of balls and the size of the community. It shows that lottery players to poorer those who, despite the occasional winner and even though the recipients of charity through the lottery, they played much higher compared to rescue!

Unless they make a mistake, has whatever the game of chance, the house or bookmaker has the advantage over the player. Therefore, it has been said is that . A race horse is a beast that can take several thousand people for a ride at the same time, why is a journalist Jeffrey Bernard said: In most betting shops you will see three window with bet here, but only one window with the legend Pay Out (endnote 13). And it’s why Jack Yelton said: There is a very easy way to return from a casino with a small fortune. Go there with a big one

The worst game

From a Christian perspective and review of the disbursement of the expected value is much too narrow. There are other, more important things to note. Take for example the freedom. Would you like to give us victory over the more freedom? Dolores Macnamara won £ 77 million on the Euro Millions lottery. Death threats and kidnap plots they and their children forced into hiding. All their children were provided with a personal alarm (endnote 14).

Or do you think rich toward God. The problem with winning the lottery is that many people to have money for it, you need money you do not lose to win. And it is losing the poorest of the poor, that the highest proportion of their income. The national prevalence study of gambling and problem gambling in South Africa in 2006 found that regular lottery players lowest income seven percent of their income spent on the lottery, compared to 1 percent for high income regular lottery players (endnote 15).

If both governments to promote the lottery and numeracy skills, it is questionable whether they are innumerate or just evil. God takes a very dim view of those who exploit the weak. Do not exploit the poor because they are poor and do not crush the needy in court, for the Lord will lead their cause and plunder those who plunder them (endnote 16) . States are guilty before God for making losers out of their citizens through national lotteries. You can improve your cash is losing far more. Maybe they will inherit a greater crime problem. One study found that pathological gamblers are three times more frequently than non-players (Endnote 17) in custody. Compared crime rates in U.S. counties with and without casinos. The former showed a dramatic increase in aggravated assaults, rapes, robberies and other crimes (endnote 18). Or maybe they will inherit more suicidal people. Reviewers of the evidence found that between 13% and 20% of pathological gamblers have attempted suicide themselves (endnote 19).

Just a minute I hear someone say. Scripture says: The lot is cast into the lap, but its every decision is from the Lord (endnote 20). And has not the disciples cast lots? (Endnote 21). What if I prayed before I lost? It is true that God is in all things, the events in casinos sovereign. It is also true that the old playful. But God has never, to follow suit. To pray is to win the lottery, to pray that others lose. Dear Lord, help me to break even. I need the money would be a better prayer. But the best prayer is Lord I can spend my money sensibly.

From a Christian point of view, the use of the weak is the worst game because you can not even death off the hook. Just as man is destined to die once, and then be sentenced … . (Endnote 22). The worst game to play, so that others lose money, so that you can win. The best way to reach the end and poor men in the direction of God.

Why do we play bad games?

Biologists suspect that our tendency may be due to gambling, has some adaptive value in a variable, the natural environment (endnote 23). The risk-taking opens new environments and new resources. The problem is that inclinations that are useful in a natural environment, is artificial in a maladaptive. Light of works by the moths on moonlit nights drew, but was suicidal after the invention of the candle. People are the slot machines like moths to a light attracted and casino owners use them to advantage. Do not get down on yourself if you are struggling with gambling. Instead, acknowledge God, what must be acknowledged. Remember that Jesus died so that all your sins could be forgiven. Try to understand what is going on and find a better game that rises above the mere primal urges.

A better game – how to never lose

The reason for my little success in gambling has little to do with skill or luck. It has to do with my play with negligible chance, in my formative years and early adulthood. I have, because I do not live long enough to lose to have. An even better strategy is not to start. Since casinos and state lotteries do not offer a fair game, the claim that Winners know when to stop and you can not win if you do not play is more than misleading. It is a lottery nonsense. The wise motto is: you can not lose if you do not play. To lose the way to stop is to stop playing. There is a much better game out there.

The best game

From a Christian point of view is the best game to lose so that others may gain. Jesus Christ gave his life so that we could win us. His example shows the deep and inspiring truth. In order for God and others is to live, to really live. As he said: Whoever finds his life will lose it, and whoever loses his life for my sake will find it (endnote 24). You could much worse than losing money on games – you could forfeit your soul. The problem with gambling is that it denies the gospel. It calls attention to itself at the expense of others and for the here and now. How narrow-minded gambling diversions besides the size of the gospel, with its focus on God and others. Forget that piddly game called poker. How about joining a game that began in eternity? For it is by grace are ye saved through faith – and this not from yourselves, it is the gift of God – not by works, lest anyone should boast. Because we are his workmanship, created in Christ Jesus for good works, which God in advance for us to do are ready (endnote 25). Well, this is a great game indeed!

Wait a minute. If the loss is for the others as a good game, I will buy me, because the National Lottery Lotto gives to good causes. With this argument I want to support tobacco companies because they donate to charity. It is as soft and softheaded simultaneously. A question to ask is a cause, whether and by how much the good outweigh the bad. It was in the context of giving (his own), that Jesus said, Therefore be wise as serpents and innocent as doves (endnote 26). It is best to play the best game strategically.

Applying this criterion to the lottery. According to the National Lotteries Board website, the current license for seven years, on average, only 30 percent of lottery ticket sales is for charity (Endnote 27) contributed. This is not a very efficient way of giving. In addition, you will have your freedom to decide exactly what the cause, give to those given. And you can not with what the National Lottery Distribution Trust Fund has agreed the best causes. There is a large percentage of sports and recreation, as it does to reconstruction and development. In 2007 there were more than a half million rand to the Castle Military Museum (endnote 28). And by the jackpot, you would help to give the couple more money than they really need. Does this affect your priorities? The National Lottery is not the best way to win money or give it away.

But, I hear someone say, you have made gambling look like homework, while it should be fun. It’s about the thrill of risk and unexpected rewards. In fact, research has shown that people engage in risky behaviors such as escape gambling to boredom (endnote 29). The researchers suggest, to pursue a better way of excitement – you will find something to live for. It works. I remember hearing about a novel social program. They took felons and trained them in dangerous search and rescue operations. Instead of the excitement of a bank robbery, there was the excitement of rescuing people from a steep cliff. A former robber said that he gets a better adrenaline rush now that he is helping people.

Gambling short-changes people. There is great promise, but little cash on delivery. It is unlikely, but at best it is only a monetary reward, which remains when we enter eternity. Many people do not see the whole thing. They are like the soldiers who crucified Jesus – they looked at the lots for His garments on Him instead of to die for them (Endnote 30) cast. A far greater thing was happening when her little game. If you see the big picture, how would you like to help others who are not? How would it be to talk to someone about Jesus to serve as a slot machine? Explain that, ultimately, gambling ruins, while God lives again. Jesus said: The thief comes only to steal and kill and to destroy: I am come that they might have life and have it have it abundantly (endnote 31). Because it is souls to serve Jesus, is much greater than the national lottery. Influence decisions made heaven and earth for him for now and eternity.

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